PR Straight Talk

Super Tuesday, with Hillary Clinton winning New York, California and Massachusetts (the latter in spite of Senator Kennedy’s Obama endorsement) clearly shows that she would be a strong candidate in a national election.  Nonetheless, the struggle for delegates was about even, with Obama having edged out smaller States that were Caucus-run.

The next crop of States lean towards Obama, but States like Ohio and Texas after that are fair game for Clinton.  Nonetheless, Obama as the evident favorite of many younger Internet savvy voters, has won him (so far) stronger financial support through that medium - with Clinton accumulating dollars among middle-aged and older, wealthier voters - but with fewer cumulative dollars than gathered by Obama.

The campaign for the Democratic nomination ensues, as yet undecided, and it’s too close to foresee the winner.  Obama has momentum, but Clinton’s appeal is powerful and should not be underestimated.

If I were counseling either candidate, I would urge Senator Clinton to have more television appeal ads produced, focusing on warm “fireside” chats from her living room, with the warm side of her personality highlighted, with strong message-driven content that also shows her firmness on tough issues.  These “warm” ads gain her points and counter her not entirely earned reputation as cold.  She needs to show her toughness on issues, but her warmth as a personality - not only in ads, but in future debates too (she did a great job in projecting both sides in the California debate).   

I would also advise her to reflect that toughness when it comes to pronouncements about dealing with harsh international adversaries; and hitting Obama on his statements about meeting with enemies before preconditions have been set.  There is even a place here to cite the terrible mistake made just prior to WW II by Britain’s Prime Minister Chamberlain in making deals with Hitler, only to have had them broken some short time after.

If I were counseling Senator Obama, I would advise that he continue with his inspirational messages, but combine them with more specific messages on issues.   He needs to assure the American people that his willingness to bring opposing sides together does not make him naive or weak, and that there is a solid foundation of strength and a firmness in standing up for principles at the foundation of his willingness to explore dialogue.  He needs to establish that he is not an ignorer of the lessons of history, and that there is a fine but nonetheless clear line of demarcation between the wisdom gained in having learned those lessons - and the wisdom and courage taken in allowing for a movement towards a new paradigm that seeks to find the common bonds between us rather than that which divides us.

On the Republican side, Senator McCain is close to victory as the Republican nominee, but Huckabee, with his wins in the South and today in Kansas, seems aimed at winning Conservative votes to the perception of McCain as a moderate.   McCain is very strong on the pro-Iraq/pro surge issue.  Huckabee is strong on the issue of tax cuts and pro-Life.  It is more than likely that Huckabee is vying for the Veep spot in a ticket that would reach both moderates and Conservatives. 

Yet there seems to be an opening for an independent like New York’s Mayor Bloomberg to insert himself as a Third Party candidate, pointing to fiscal Conservatism and social progressivism as a viable alternative to both the Democratic and Republican positions.  While at the moment an unlikely development, it is not out of the realm of possibility.  

The American people are looking for reassurance that we are safe from terrorists, safe with decent health care, safe in our environment, and that the future is hopeful with the promise of jobs, economic security,  and opportunities for human development.    How each candidate brings his or her individual messages which reinforce both sides of that equation can earn them additional support and votes.

So let us stay tuned.